Showing posts with label QE2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label QE2. Show all posts

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Why QE2 Failed: The Money All Went Offshore

Global Research
Ellen Brown

On June 30, QE2 ended with a whimper.  The Fed’s second round of “quantitative easing” involved $600 billion created with a computer keystroke for the purchase of long-term government bonds.  But the government never actually got the money, which went straight into the reserve accounts of banks, where it still sits today.  Worse, it went into the reserve accounts of FOREIGN banks, on which the Federal Reserve is now paying 0.25% interest.

Before QE2 there was QE1, in which the Fed bought $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities from the banks.  This money too remains in bank reserve accounts collecting interest and dust.  The Fed reports that the accumulated excess reserves of depository institutions now total nearly $1.6 trillion.   

Interestingly, $1.6 trillion is also the size of the federal deficit – a deficit so large that some members of Congress are threatening to force a default on the national debt if it isn’t corrected soon.

So here we have the anomalous situation of a $1.6 trillion hole in the federal budget, and $1.6 trillion created by the Fed that is now sitting idle in bank reserve accounts.  If the intent of “quantitative easing” was to stimulate the economy, it might have worked better if the money earmarked for the purchase of Treasuries had been delivered directly to the Treasury.  That was actually how it was done before 1935, when the law was changed to require private bond dealers to be cut into the deal. 

The one thing QE2 did for the taxpayers was to reduce the interest tab on the federal debt.  The long-term bonds the Fed bought on the open market are now effectively interest-free to the government, since the Fed rebates its profits to the Treasury after deducting its costs. 

But QE2 has not helped the anemic local credit market, on which smaller businesses rely; and it is these businesses that are largely responsible for creating new jobs.  In a June 30 article in the Wall Street Journal titled “Smaller Businesses Seeking Loans Still Come Up Empty,” Emily Maltby reported that business owners rank access to capital as the most important issue facing them today; and only 17% of smaller businesses said they were able to land needed bank financing.    

How QE2 Wound Up in Foreign Banks

Before the Banking Act of 1935, the government was able to borrow directly from its own central bank.  Other countries followed that policy as well, including Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; and they prospered as a result.  After 1935, however, if the U.S. central bank wanted to buy government securities, it had to purchase them from private banks on the “open market.”  Former Fed Chairman Marinner Eccles wrote in support of an act to remove that requirement that it was intended to keep politicians from spending too much.  But all the law succeeded in doing was to give the bond-dealer banks a cut as middlemen. 

Worse, it caused the Fed to lose control of where the money went.  Rather than buying more bonds from the Treasury, the banks that got the cash could just sit on it or use it for their own purposes; and that is apparently what is happening today.

In carrying out its QE2 purchases, the Fed had to follow standard operating procedure for “open market operations”: it took secret bids from the 20 “primary dealers” authorized to sell securities to the Fed and accepted the best offers.  The problem was that 12 of these dealers – or over half -- are U.S.-based branches of foreign banks (including BNP Paribas, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, UBS and others); and they evidently won the bids. 

Friday, April 29, 2011

US Government Debt Rating Lowered to "C"

Examiner
MaryHolloway Love

Weiss Research, a very well respected firm headquartered in Florida, had it's ratings section, Weiss Ratings, iniated it''s coverage of sovereign nations debt by slashing US Government Debt to a "C" rating, which is only 2 points above junk status. Many analysts and economists feel this may well result in a rift, as S&P has been making noises for over a year now about doing this very same thing.

Many signs have pointed to deep pressure put on them by some in the administration to hold off and have a wait and see attitude until after QE2, though there were no economists who believed that QE2 was going to be the magical panacea that Bernanke demanded it be.  It  remains to be seen if S&P will now take the plunge, especially with the US Dollar sinking sharply, the US monetizing it's own debt and continuing to keep the money printing presses in action, thereby contributing mightily to the devaluation of the dollar and the incoming inflation that experts say has reared it's ugly head and is about to become quite a problem, given the high unemployment numbers, the rising prices, the stagnant wages, all of which combine to put additional pressure on the Treasuries and the Dollar and neither have any good news on which to base a rally.

Spot silver is up nearly 60% just so far this year alone.  It settled at $49.13 an oz yesterday after teasing $50/oz, but still higher than 1980 when the Hunt Brothers were cornering the market in silver. Yet another day, silver made another new high. Gold also hit another record high to settle at $1539.40/oz at close of NYMerc.
 
Weiss Research, a very well respected firm headquartered in Florida, had it's ratings section, Weiss Ratings, iniated it''s coverage of sovereign nations debt by slashing US Government Debt to a "C" rating, which is only 2 points above junk status. Many analysts and economists feel this may well result in a rift, as S&P has been making noises for over a year now about doing this very same thing.

Many signs have pointed to deep pressure put on them by some in the administration to hold off and have a wait and see attitude until after QE2, though there were no economists who believed that QE2 was going to be the magical panacea that Bernanke demanded it be.  It  remains to be seen if S&P will now take the plunge, especially with the US Dollar sinking sharply, the US monetizing it's own debt and continuing to keep the money printing presses in action, thereby contributing mightily to the devaluation of the dollar and the incoming inflation that experts say has reared it's ugly head and is about to become quite a problem, given the high unemployment numbers, the rising prices, the stagnant wages, all of which combine to put additional pressure on the Treasuries and the Dollar and neither have any good news on which to base a rally.

Spot silver is up nearly 60% just so far this year alone.  It settled at $49.13 an oz yesterday after teasing $50/oz, but still higher than 1980 when the Hunt Brothers were cornering the market in silver. Yet another day, silver made another new high. Gold also hit another record high to settle at $1539.40/oz at close of NYMerc.

With the dollar falling and Bernanke giving the first ever scheduled Press Conference by a Federal Bank President in the 97 year history of the Federal Reserve,during which Mr. Bernanke announced the continuation of QE2 and the loose moetary policies currently in place would continue. Those words lit a fire under the precious metals and they took off once more as protection from economic chaos and also to combat and offset inflation.

Look for the equities markets to open flat to lower, and expect quite a lot of activity in the entire spectre of Precious Metals as most traders and technicians and many of the hedge funds want to go home long the metals over the weekend. It seems as if no one trading these shiny substances can bear to be barehanded. Buy any dips, and if no dips, buy and dollar price average.