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Austerity-weary Lithuania ejects government: exit poll

Reuters
Andrius Sytas and Christian Lowe

Lithuanians voted out their government in an election on Sunday, an exit poll showed, in a taste of what may await other European leaders forced by the financial crisis to implement unpopular austerity measures.

An ex-Soviet state of about three million people, Lithuania crashed hard when the crisis hit four years ago. It made tough budget cuts in response and is now returning to economic health - but too late for voters fed up with belt-tightening.

An exit poll read out on national television after voting finished suggested Lithuanians had thrown out center-right Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius in favor of a coalition of left-leaning opposition parties who promise to soften the austerity.

One of the likely leaders of the coalition told Reuters he would cushion vulnerable sections society from market forces, but would not throw away prudent economic policies.

"We are going to continue austerity in Lithuania, if we are in government," Algirdas Butkevicius, head of the Social Democrats, said in an interview at his party headquarters after the exit poll came out.

He said his party intended to keep next year's deficit at the same level as the one projected by the government in power now. "Our fiscal deficit I think will be in the next year about 2.5 percent of GDP (gross domestic product)," he said.

The Baltic Sea nation jumped quickly to implement austerity measures and is held up by euro zone countries as a model of how to respond to the crisis. It is a bellwether for governments in Greece, Spain, Ireland and elsewhere, who are being forced to make similar swinging cuts.

The RAIT/BNS exit poll gave the biggest share of the vote, 19.8 percent, to the Labour Party. The center-left Social Democrats, likely coalition partner for Labour, were second with 17.8 percent and the prime minister's Homeland Union was in third place on 16.7 percent.

The final shape of the next government will not be clear until talks take place on forming a coalition. It may come down to a second round, to take place in two weeks, which will settle races in local districts where no candidate had a clear lead.

But it appeared very unlikely on Sunday that the prime minister would be able to stay in power, after voters held him accountable for the tough decisions he took to drag Lithuania out of crisis.

"What kind of crisis management are we talking about?" asked Alfonsus Spudys, 78, on his way out of a polling station earlier on Sunday in the capital, Vilnius. "They scythed people down ... and now they are saying they handled the crisis really well."

Before the financial crash in 2008, Lithuania was booming. Scandinavian banks provided cheap credit which let the country buy more than it sold and over-heated the real estate market.

When the crisis struck, the banks stopped lending. Economic output dropped by 15 percent in 2009. Unemployment shot up. Thousands of young Lithuanians went abroad to seek work.

Kubilius, elected after the crisis began, cut pensions and public sector wages. To save money, only every third street lamp in Vilnius was lit, and fuel for police cars was rationed.

This discipline helped the economy rebound. Gross domestic product grew 5.8 percent last year, one of the fastest rates of any European Union economy. The budget deficit has been tamed.

TOUGH MEDICINE

But many Lithuanians now say the price was too high, even though institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have heaped praise on the country's leaders.

"If the IMF was voting then he (the prime minister) would be re-elected," said Kestutis Girnius, who teaches at the Institute for International Relations and Political Science in Vilnius.

"But the IMF does not live in Lithuania, and they could not live on a Lithuanian salary."

The most likely outcome, analysts say, is that a ruling coalition will be formed between Labour, which is led by Russian-born businessman Viktor Uspaskich, the Social Democrats and the smaller Order and Justice Party.

These parties have said they will ease the pain of austerity by increasing the minimum wage, making the rich pay higher income tax than the poor and launching job creation schemes.

However, economists say the country's still-delicate finances dictate that whoever is in government will have to stick, for the most part, to the existing austerity program.

Anti-fluoride group will submit more than 35,000 signatures to Portland in 'confident' bid to force vote

Editor's Note:  Now you know why I live in Portland.

Oregon Live
Brad Schmidt

 An anti-fluoride group said it's been so successful collecting signatures to block Portland's controversial fluoride plan that it will turn them in Thursday -- a day ahead of schedule and with thousands of signatures to spare.

If they succeeded in collecting 19,858 valid signatures from city voters, Portland's already-approved fluoride plan would come to a screeching halt. It wouldn't move forward unless voters approve, with the most likely election date not until May 2014.

Clean Water Portland collected more than 35,000 signatures by Wednesday afternoon, leader Kim Kaminski said, and the group plans to submit them Thursday afternoon, ahead of Friday's 5 p.m. deadline.

"I am confident that we will get this on the ballot," she said. "If I weren't confident, we wouldn't be turning them in a day early."

Portland's long and contentious history with fluoride dates back nearly 60 years, with residents supporting the cavity-fighting chemical once but voting against it three times. Before the City Council unanimously approved its plan Sept. 12, Portland was the largest city in the country that hadn't taken steps to add fluoride to its water supply, which also serves residents in Gresham, Tigard and Tualatin.

City Commissioner Randy Leonard, who pushed the Water Bureau to add fluoride by March 2014, conceded Wednesday that all planning work will stop if the signature-gathering is successful. But he said he isn't disappointed.

"That's why the process exists," he said, adding that he expects a "full and meaningful debate" in the months ahead.

Ironically, that's been a major complaint about Portland's process. Mayor Sam Adams and Commissioner Nick Fish joined Leonard in announcing their support of fluoridation weeks before public meetings or casting votes. While some residents fervently oppose fluoride, others were upset by city leaders' failure to let voters weigh in.

Since the council vote, Clean Water Portland's referendum committee has collected more than $41,000 and paid dozens of people to collect signatures. Referendums challenge a City Council ordinance but give opponents just 30 days to collect signatures from at least 6 percent of registered voters.

"Given the short amount of time that we have, and given the lack of notice by City Council and the way they railroaded it through, we had really no choice but to hire paid signature gatherers," Kaminski said.

It's been 11 years since a group successfully challenged a city decision. In 2001, the City Council voted to establish street fees, but big businesses -- which would have faced big bills -- helped bankroll a signature-gathering effort. The City Council repealed its decision instead of sending it to voters.

"It's not a typical process for the city, so we don't have a lot of history to go of off," said Deborah Scroggin, the city's elections officer.

Once Clean Water Portland submits its paperwork, city and county officials will have 30 days to certify whether enough of the signatures are valid. From there, the council has another 30 days to consider whether to repeal its ordinance, although that scenario is unlikely.

That means the fluoride issue would head to voters in the May 2014 primary election unless the council pushes for an earlier decision. According to city code, the council can set an earlier date if the "public interest in a prompt resolution of the question outweighs the costs associated with a special election." Among possible options are March, May, September or November 2013.

Fluoride supporters said they want to wait until all the signatures are verified before talking about next steps. But the Everyone Deserves Healthy Teeth Coalition has proved politically savvy through lobbying efforts at City Hall and in a television ad campaign.

"We absolutely will continue to promote fluoridation as the right step for our city to improve the dental health of Portland children and families," said Raquel Luz Bournhonesque, who organized the coalition.

Kaminski said voters deserve a chance to decide for themselves.

"It puts everything on hold," she said, "so that people have time and step back and take a deep breath and figure out what's going on."